Appendix S1. Coefficients of the final model. Please note: Wiley-Blackwell is not responsible for the content or functionality of any supporting materials supplied by the authors. Any queries (other than missing material)

should be directed to the corresponding author for the article. “
“The aim of the study was to reconstruct the HIV epidemic in Australia for selected populations categorized by exposure route; namely, transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM), transmission among injecting drug HM781-36B clinical trial users (IDUs), and transmission among heterosexual men and women in Australia. Statistical back-projection techniques were extended to reconstruct the historical HIV infection curve using surveillance data. We developed and used a novel modified back-projection modelling technique that makes maximal use of all available surveillance data sources in Australia, namely, (1) newly diagnosed HIV infections, see more (2) newly acquired HIV infections and (3) AIDS diagnoses. The analyses suggest a peak

HIV incidence in Australian MSM of ∼2000 new infections per year in the late 1980s, followed by a rapid decline to a low of <500 in the early 1990s. We estimate that, by 2007, cumulatively ∼20  000 MSM were infected with HIV, of whom 13% were not diagnosed with HIV infection. Similarly, a total of ∼1050 and ∼2600 individuals were infected through sharing needles and heterosexual contact, respectively, and in 12% and 23% of these individuals, respectively, the infection remained undetected. Male homosexual contact accounts for the majority of new HIV infections in Australia. However, the transmission route distribution of new HIV infections has changed over time. The number of HIV infections is increasing substantially among MSM, increasing moderately in those infected via heterosexual exposure, and decreasing in IDUs. Estimates of

past and current HIV and AIDS incidences and prevalences are important for effective public health prevention strategies. The HIV/AIDS epidemic in Australia has been under surveillance since 1981 through notification of AIDS diagnoses, Florfenicol and since 1985 through notification of cases of newly diagnosed HIV infection. Since 1991, further surveillance has been supplemented by national notification of HIV diagnoses with evidence of newly acquired HIV infection, defined as new HIV diagnoses with either a previous negative HIV test within 12 months, or evidence of a recent seroconversion illness. Although these data are indicative of trends in the HIV epidemic, they cannot be used directly to estimate the incidence of HIV infection. Accurate estimates of the incidence of HIV infection are required at the national and subgroup levels to determine trends in the epidemic and to evaluate the effectiveness of prevention strategies.